Arctic 2050
The original Arctic-2050 report explored alternative futures for the region and possible implications of economic activity intensification, establishment of the Arctic technological platform, and development of the Arctic cities.
Four 2050 scenarios provide the frame and common starting point for inclusive and equitable discussion.
We invite experts, business and policy-makers to share their views on new prospects for the Arctic.
AGE OF DISCOVERY
Weak enabling environment
High pace of tech development and innovation
Fierce competition for the bowels of the Arctic fueled by the state-funded innovations reaps off the benefits of the Arctic riches making the economy grow and attracting opportunity-seekers to the region. Fragmented environmental regulations and weak disaster response on the overall fail to slow down damaging of the Arctic ecosystem. The natural habitat and livelihoods of the indigenous people deteriorate amidst the accelerating climate crisis.
RENAISSANCE
Strong enabling environment
High pace of tech development and innovation
Russian saying goes ‘it is good to be healthy and prosperous’. And there is only a grain of a joke in every joke. In this world, the nations agreed to make the exploration of the Arctic — just as much as space exploration — a showcase of international cooperation and humanity’s eternal strive for progress and invention. Governments agreed on standards for doing business in the Arctic, incentivizing using best available technologies, and innovate to prove decoupling is possible. Ambitious dreams attract talent and the Arctic has become a magnet for those willing to prove that impossible is just fake news.
DARK AGES
Weak enabling environment
Low pace of tech development and innovation
Lack of coordinated national and supranational frameworks and governance and the low pace of innovations and deployment of the new technologies literally freeze Arctic development which remains virtually stable for the decade and then quickly deteriorates, leaving the Arctic depopulated and devastated industrial site for ruthless exploitation of the exhausted deposits of fossil resources.
ROMANTICISM
Strong enabling environment
Low pace of tech development and innovation
Low pace of tech development and innovation The world of the winning environmentalism has made the Arctic a showcase of all the things good for the ecosystem. Only sustainable energy and transport, no mining and extracting, going back to nature. Money stopped flowing to the Arctic. What once was a global magnet for business has turned out to be just a filming location for the National Geographic.
The Arctic 2050 research
Harsh environmental conditions of the Arctic have been constraining economic activity in the region. Climate change opens up new prospects for the development of these territories. The Arctic has become one of the geopolitical hot spots: global and regional players seek to advance their frontiers.
The region is extremely rich in natural resources: 30% of the world’s unexplored reserves of natural gas and 13% of oil reserves lie down in the Arctic bowels. Melting ice opens up access to unexplored mineral and biological recourses, as well as unlocks shipping routes for year-round navigation.
At the same time, the intensification of economic activity makes a significant impact on both the environment and the living conditions of the indigenous peoples. Understanding the driving forces that will transform the business and political landscape of the Arctic in the coming decades is crucial for policy-makers and businesses in order to come up with mutually beneficial approaches for seizing the arising opportunities without making harm to the unique Arctic natural and social ecosystem.
We develop four narratives for the Arctic until 2050 describing the possible implications of the intensification of economic activity in the region, establishment of the Arctic technological platform, and development of the Arctic cities. We discuss threats and opportunities in each scenario offering recommendations for the business and policy-makers. We are combining cabinet and field research. We provide an overview of the academic and applied literature on the subject and share findings from the series of in-depth interviews and expert seminars with key stakeholders, including businesses, government, local administrations, social and environmental non-governmental organizations.
Arctic 2050
The Arctic region is going through a serious transformation as it faces the disruptive challenges of climate change and shifting global political, social and economic patterns.
Discussion
On April 23, an “Arctic-2050: Mapping the Future of the Arctic” roundtable was held as part of the High North Dialogue 2021 to analyze the economic, environmental and social prospects for the region’s development.
News
Economic activities
Over the past week, several significant developments have occurred concerning economic activities in the Arctic region Arctic economic activity: weekly snapshot The Arctic’s vast endowment of oil, gas, minerals, freshwater, and fisheries continues to anchor
Climate change
Over the past week, several significant developments have emerged regarding climate change in the Arctic Arctic climate weekly brief Over the past week, multiple studies warned the Arctic Ocean may have crossed a tipping point,
International cooperation
Over the past week, several notable developments have influenced international cooperation in the Arctic Arctic week in brief: security, corridors, and science ties Security dynamics sharpened as Norway voiced concern over Russia’s growing Arctic posture,
Development of transport routes
Over the past week, there have been no major new developments specifically concerning the development of transport routes in the Arctic. However, recent trends and initiatives continue to shape the region’s transportation landscape Arctic Transport
Indigenous communities
Over the past week, several developments have impacted Indigenous communities in the Arctic Arctic and Indigenous Affairs: Weekly Brief This week spotlighted Indigenous leadership across the circumpolar North, with renewed attention to Inuit and other
Technological advancements
Over the past week, notable technological advancements have emerged in the Arctic region Arctic week in review: security flashpoints, climate alarms, and deep history Security watchers flagged a rise in espionage activity in Norway’s High