Data visualizations
Scenarios building process:
Dark Ages – a period of European history commonly related to the 5th-15th centuries. The name comes from the fact that few historical records have survived from this period, and therefore modern knowledge of it is limited. The other meaning is less literal: that after the decline of the Roman Empire, Europe was static with little progress made in any aspect of life. Instead, there were constant wars and unrest, with the church being the most conservative power restricting secular development.
Age of Discovery – is a period of European history usually associated with the 15th-17th centuries. Starting with the Portuguese, and later followed by the Spanish, French, and English, explorers undertook ocean-going voyages in search of expensive commodities, mostly spices, which were found in the East, but incidentally involved discovering the New World in the West. Some countries were already adopting rules and what we would call ‘business ethics’, though they were of little use overseas, where everything that could make money would do – from bribing to genocide.
Romanticism – is a relatively short period in European history that emerged in the late eighteenth century and lasted less than a century. The core ideas emphasised individuals, their emotions and feelings, and especially their interaction with nature. Broadly seen as a reaction to the Industrial Revolution, romanticism was eventually supersede by realism.
Regional performance under each scenario:
Map of key factors that have the potential to shape the Arctic regional development:
Scenarios matrix:
AGE OF DISCOVERY
Weak enabling environment
High pace of tech development and innovation
Fierce competition for the bowels of the Arctic fueled by the state-funded innovations reaps off the benefits of the Arctic riches making the economy grow and attracting opportunity-seekers to the region. Fragmented environmental regulations and weak disaster response on the overall fail to slow down damaging of the Arctic ecosystem. The natural habitat and livelihoods of the indigenous people deteriorate amidst the accelerating climate crisis.
RENAISSANCE
Strong enabling environment
High pace of tech development and innovation
Russian saying goes ‘it is good to be healthy and prosperous’. And there is only a grain of a joke in every joke. In this world, the nations agreed to make the exploration of the Arctic — just as much as space exploration — a showcase of international cooperation and humanity’s eternal strive for progress and invention. Governments agreed on standards for doing business in the Arctic, incentivizing using best available technologies, and innovate to prove decoupling is possible. Ambitious dreams attract talent and the Arctic has become a magnet for those willing to prove that impossible is just fake news.
DARK AGES
Weak enabling environment
Low pace of tech development and innovation
Lack of coordinated national and supranational frameworks and governance and the low pace of innovations and deployment of the new technologies literally freeze Arctic development which remains virtually stable for the decade and then quickly deteriorates, leaving the Arctic depopulated and devastated industrial site for ruthless exploitation of the exhausted deposits of fossil resources.
ROMANTICISM
Strong enabling environment
Low pace of tech development and innovation
Low pace of tech development and innovation The world of the winning environmentalism has made the Arctic a showcase of all the things good for the ecosystem. Only sustainable energy and transport, no mining and extracting, going back to nature. Money stopped flowing to the Arctic. What once was a global magnet for business has turned out to be just a filming location for the National Geographic.
Arctic Ice Cap melting simulation by 2050:
